America Alone: The End of the World As We Know It
A Book Review
Newbaum Turk
Issue date: 4/9/08 Section: Commentary
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Climate change, you say, is the biggest threat? Try again:
"By the next century, German will be spoken only at Hitler, Himmler, Goebbels and Goering's Monday night poker game in Hell. And long before the Maldive Islands are submerged by "rising sea levels" every Spaniard and Italian will be six feet under. But sure, go ahead and worry about 'climate change.'"
It seems that the correct answer is demographics. Now, you are thinking that a book about population must be tedious and boring, and you would be right if it wasn't for the skillful writing and the sharpest of wits found in Mark Steyn. He is a naturalized American citizen (from Canada) living in New Hampshire, the author of five books and writer of a syndicated column that appears all over the world.
His latest work, America Alone, at first glance seems almost schizophrenic; injecting humor into what would normally be a maudlin affair when writing about the end of the world. His skill as a writer shines when he hits you with anecdote after anecdote which conveys more sobering issues.
How sobering? Let's look at some numbers. In population demographics, the "replacement level" fertility rate is 2.1 children per adult female (or couple). That is the point at which a population neither grows nor shrinks. A fertility rate of 4.2 means that the population will double (roughly) every generation while a 1.1 fertility rate means the population will halve every generation.
What are the fertility rates of the industrialized nations mentioned earlier? Italy, 1.2; Spain, 1.1; Canada, 1.5, Japan, 1.3, Russia, 1.1, Australia, 1.7; and Europe as a whole, 1.4. I'll mention the United States later.
"Good!" you might say…we have heard since grade school that the world is overpopulated with humans and that we are destroying the planet. A "correction" is long over due. But there is a problem. What about the fertility rates for non-industrialized nations? "Somalia, is 6.91, Niger 6.83, Afghanistan 6.78, Yemen 6.75. Notice what those nations have in common?" "In 1970, the developed world had twice as big a share of the global population as the Muslim world: 30% to 15%. By 2000, they were the same: each had about 20%."
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